MSG 187 Space Weather Environmental Modelling (SWEM)

MSG 187 Space Weather Environmental Modelling (SWEM)

MSG 187 Space Weather Environmental Modelling (SWEM)Date: (10-12-2020)
City: Sofia
Location: Sofia
Duration: 1
Classification: NATO Unclassified


The Sun-Earth system is a highly complex and interconnected relationship whereby the solar wind transfers significantenergy, momentum, and mass to the inner magnetosphere, ionosphere, and upper atmosphere. Spacecraft in orbit aresimilarly affected and changes in solar wind can result in degraded mission lifetimes due to sputtering, charging, anddamage to critical electronic systems. The ability to simulate and predict space weather phenomena and effects is criticalto the improvement of operations and performance of satellite missions in all orbital regimes. In this ever dynamic andharsh environment, the effects of space weather are unpredictable to a large degree and while great progress has beenmade in the last decade in space weather modeling, much work needs to be done yet to enhance the ability to effectivelymodel space weather.



As space capabilities have continued to improve throughout the last few decades, NATO nations have grown increasinglydependent on the benefits derived from the global telecommunications, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance(ISR), and Precision Navigation and Timing systems provided from various military and commercial assets. Satelliteconstellations are vulnerable to a wide array of threats that can degrade their performance, ranging from cyber-attacksand jamming to direct-ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) systems to space weather. While many systems incorporate redundantsystems and protections against the harsh reality of the space environment, all are vulnerable in certain ways to variousexternal factors. The loss of this capability due to the combination of one or more environmental, terrestrial, or man-madefactors significantly hinders and denies today’s military’s operational user the capabilities that space brings to the fight. Tomitigate against this loss of capability, this research will define and investigate the current progress of space weathermodeling across the partner nations, assess what progress needs to be made to advance these models, and thendetermine the operationalization of these models within NATO operations. This TG is a critical enabler of SCI-346 TG asit provides a comprehensive risk assessment which will identify and quantify terrestrial and environmental effects and theimpact on current NATO operations.



• Assess status and identification of all current space weather environmental satellite systems

• Determine operational modeling gaps and opportunities

• Determine roadmap for future modeling and simulations path forward

• Workshop with practical applications for possible operational NATO users

• Quantify loss of operational capability with operational NATO users



• Operational space weather M&S framework to assess probability of events and severity of functionality loss

• Capability loss assessment

• Operational Concept of Operations



• Assessment of current space weather data and models

• Information fusion



This activity should be supported by any available studies and operational data available from the contributing nations’operational satellite systems and current space weather models.



• The results produced within this group will be discussed with operational people from the various participating nationsand organizations. The TG considers this dialog as a critical element of its work.

• For a broader discussion, the group will organize a workshop (new TAP to be issued) six months before the end of thegroup where the framework is discussed. On basis of this workshop the group will adjust the results to operationalproducts/alternatives as much as possible.


Activity Start Date - 01 SEP 2020

Activity End Date   - 01 SEP 2023 




The group is open for participation: NATO countries, NATO partners, NATO organizations, STO EOP


Security Classification Level or Marking of the Activity: NATO Unclassified (NU)


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